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The Money Anxiety Index shows a nearly equal chance for Clinton and Trump of winning the elections.

The Money Anxiety Index has a perfect track record for predicting presidential reelections.  If the November Money Anxiety Index is lower than January, the incumbent president is likely to win the reelections.  In January of this year, the Money Anxiety Index stood at 60.4, compared to 60.2 in November – a 0.2 index point lower, but within the margin of error.

Although Hillary Clinton is not up for reelection, her highly visible role as Secretary of State and her close affiliation to the Obama administration, make her run for the presidency a quasi reelection campaign.  In all 9 presidential reelections in the past 50 years, the incumbent won only when the Money Anxiety Index declined during the reelection year.  Conversely, presidents running for reelection lost when the Money Anxiety Index increased between January and November.

The most recent example is Obama’s reelection.  In January of 2012, the Money Anxiety Index stood at 90.9, and declined to 87.1 by November – a reliable indication that President Obama will be reelected based on the track record of the Money Anxiety Index to predict reelection outcome. In the past 50 years, incumbent presidents, running for reelection, won only when the Money Anxiety Index decreased between January and November of the reelection year. 

Aside from Obama’s reelection, there were 8 reelection campaigns in the last 50 years, and only 5 of them were successful.  All 5 presidents, who won reelection, were successful in lowering the Money Anxiety index between January and November of the reelection year.  President George W. Bush won reelection when during his reelection year, from January to November 2004, the Money Anxiety Index decreased from 59.6 to 58.2 – a decrease of 1.4 index points.  Similarly, President William J. Clinton won reelection when during his reelection year, from January to November 1996, the Money Anxiety Index decreased from 69.2 to 68.8 – a decrease of 0.4 index points. 

Conversely, President James E. Carter was not reelected to a second term.  During his reelection year, from January to November 1980, the Money Anxiety Index increased from 80.3 to 98.4 – an increase of 18.1 index points.  Similarly, President George H.W. Bush was not reelected to a second term.  During his reelection year, from January to November 1992, the Money Anxiety Index increased from 81.7 to 85.7 – an increase of 4.0 index points.

Historically, President Lyndon B. Johnson was elected after serving the remaining term of John F. Kennedy.  During his election year, from January to November 1964, the Money Anxiety Index decreased from 63.0 to 48.5 – a decrease of 14.5 index points.  The same was the case with the successful reelection of Richard M. Nixon.  During his reelection year, from January to November 1972, the Money Anxiety Index decreased from 71.5 to 64.5 – a decrease of 7.0 index points.  Similarly, President Ronald W. Reagan won a second term. During his reelection year, from January to November 1984, the Money Anxiety Index decreased from 91.8 to 84.4 – a decrease of 7.4 index points. 

On the other hand, President Gerald R. Ford, who run for reelection after serving the remaining term of President Nixon. During his reelection year, from January to November 1976, the Money Anxiety Index increased from 90.2 to 93.2 – an increase of 3.0 index points. 

 


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